Emissions projections are estimates of Australia's future greenhouse gas emissions and help determine how Australia is tracking against its emissions reduction targets.
The projections use sector-specific models. These sectors are:
- stationary energy excluding electricity
- industrial processes and product use
- land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
The projections input to:
- policy development and evaluation for the government and stakeholders
- determining the efficacy of emissions reduction policies
- scoping future emissions reductions activities
The emissions projections are prepared consistent with international guidelines adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) guidelines.
Reporting Australia's emissions projections also fulfils one of Australia's reporting requirements under the UNFCCC.
The difference between projections and emissions forecasts
Our department prepares emissions projections using the latest production and activity levels, commodity prices and macroeconomic assumptions data. Our department makes reasonable assumptions about this data into the future based on the advice of other government agencies and external consultants. These include:
- macroeconomic forecasts by the Australian Treasury
- activity forecasts by other government agencies such as the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences and the department’s Office of the Chief Economist
- forecasts by other public bodies such as the Australian Energy Market Operator
- announced investment intentions by businesses
The projections are modelled taking this data into account and indicate what Australia's future emissions could be if the assumptions that underpin the projections continue to occur.
For example, the projections presume that assumptions around the current rates of economic and population growth, technologies adopted and government policies in place. The projections do not attempt to account for unknown future changes in technology, energy demand and supply and the economy.
Certainty of projections
Projections are inherently uncertain.
They involve judgements about the future growth path of global and domestic economies, policies and measures, technology and human behaviour. This uncertainty increases the further into the future emissions are projected.
Emissions projection reports
Our department issues reports that detail emissions trends including sector specific analysis of the factors that drive emissions.
Read the reports:
- Australia's emissions projections 2021
- Australia’s emissions projections 2020
- Australia’s emissions projections 2019
- Australia’s emissions projections 2018
- Australia’s emissions projections 2017
- Australia’s emissions projections 2016
- Australia’s emissions projections 2014-2015
- Australia’s emissions projections 2013
- In 2013 the Climate Change Authority requested the department provide input to economic modelling of different climate change mitigation scenarios
- Read about how we track and report Australian greenhouse gas emissions