Australia's climate has already changed, and further changes are likely as concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to increase. Decision-makers rely on model-based scenarios of future climate to inform planning decisions.
National Climate Change Projections
The Australian Government is working with state and territory governments, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, universities, and other commonwealth funded initiatives such as the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub and the Australian Climate Service (ACS) to develop a set of national downscaled climate projections.
The collaboration is supported through the establishment of a National Partnership for Climate Projections which will guide delivery of a nationally aligned, sustainable, and integrated approach to Australian projection science and projections information. The Partnership includes representatives of relevant federal, state and territory government agencies, peak science bodies and universities. It draws together substantial knowledge and expertise in climate science, climate change impacts, adaptation and application, knowledge brokering, climate service provision and end-user perspectives.
Australia’s future climate projections will be consistent with global climate model outputs (CMIP6), and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. These new models will have higher resolution, and more accurately represent the climate system and future climate change as they incorporate more advanced understandings of the climate and Earth system.
Previous projections were released in 2015 and are available from Climate Change in Australia website. They were produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. The Projections are based on 40 global climate models driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios and are presented for eight regions of Australia which will be affected differently by climate change. Results have been prepared for 21 climate variables (both on the land and in the ocean) and for four 20-year time periods (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090).
The website includes 14 interactive tools for exploring the data at different levels of complexity, to help improve accessibility, useability and relevancy of the projections for the Australian public. The tools range from the Regional Climate Change Explorer, a tool which presents statements of projected change for each region, through to a projections data download facility, the Climate Futures Tool.
More localised projections have been produced for some areas of Australia by state agencies. These are available from:
- National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy
- Climate adaptation
- Climate change science
- Climate services and tools
- Nature-based solutions for climate
- Environment climate change initiatives
- Agricultural climate change initiatives
- Oceans climate change initiatives
- Emissions reduction
- International climate adaptation
- Publications and resources
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report Interactive Regional Climate Atlas: climate information for four Australian regions
- Climate change in Australia