Our climate has already changed, and further changes are likely as concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to increase. Decision-makers rely on model-based scenarios of future climate to inform planning decisions.
National Climate Change Projections
We are working with state and territory governments, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, universities, and other Australian Government funded initiatives such as the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub and the Australian Climate Service (ACS) to develop an updated set of national downscaled climate projections.
National Partnership for Climate Projections
The National Partnership for Climate Projections is a voluntary collaboration. It includes states, territories, peak science bodies, and the Australian Government.
The collaboration will guide a national approach to Australian climate projection science. The collaboration will also provide information on climate projections. It aims to develop a coordinated approach to deliver high-quality, consistent climate information. The produced information will be comparable, robust and fit-for-purpose.
Members have been working together as the Partnership since 2022.
The publication of the National Climate Projections Roadmap occurred in March 2023. The Roadmap guides the focus areas for collaboration and establishes the group's governance.
Endorsement of the Partnership Steering Committee Terms of Reference occurred in August 2023.
Governance for the Partnership includes publishing an annual report that provides:
- an overview of the partnership’s progress against Partnership agreed goals, and
- the Partnership work plans.
The Adaptation Working Group provides the annual report to the Energy and Climate Senior Officials Group.
Australia’s future climate projections will align with global climate model outputs. They will also align with the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.
The models used to develop these projections will have higher resolution. They will more accurately represent the climate system and future climate change. The previous models had less advanced understandings of the climate and Earth system.
Previous national projections
Previous national projections were released in 2015 and are available from Climate Change in Australia website. They were produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. The projections are based on 40 global climate models driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios and are presented for eight regions of Australia. They include 21 climate variables (both on the land and in the ocean) across four 20-year time periods (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090).
More localised projections have been produced for some areas of Australia by state and territory agencies. These are available from:
- Queensland Future Climate Dashboard
- NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling
- SA Climate Ready
- Climate Futures for Tasmania
- Victorian Climate Projections 2019
- National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy
- Climate adaptation
- Climate change science
- Climate services and tools
- Nature-based solutions for climate
- Environment climate change initiatives
- Agricultural climate change initiatives
- Oceans climate change initiatives
- Emissions reduction
- International climate adaptation
- Publications and resources
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report Interactive Regional Climate Atlas: climate information for four Australian regions
- Climate change in Australia