Australia’s emissions projections 2022

This report details Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions trends to 2035. It analyses the factors driving emissions in each sector and outlines progress towards meeting Australia's emissions reduction targets.

The report also provides insights into how reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism and 82% renewable generation in Australia’s electricity grid could impact emissions to 2035.

Key data and insights

In June 2022 Australia updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)¹, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. The revised 2030 commitment is both a single-year target to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and a multi-year emissions budget from 2021-2030. Based on a 43% reduction by 2030, our emissions budget for this period is 4,381 Mt CO₂-e.

Under the baseline scenario, Australia is expected to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 32% below 2005 levels by 2030, and be 5% above Australia’s 2021-2030 emissions budget. Australia is expected to achieve a 38% reduction on 2005 levels by 2035. The baseline scenario includes existing federal, state and territory policies and measures as well as policies under the Powering Australia Plan where there is enough detail to include them.

As well as policies included in the baseline, we estimated Australia’s emissions under a scenario with announced policies that are subject to ongoing consultation and design. This scenario assumes:

• Reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism, and
• 82% renewable energy in Australia’s electricity grids.

Under a ‘with additional measures’ scenario, Australia is projected to be 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 1% above the 2021-2030 emissions budget. By 2035 under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario, Australia is expected to be 48% below 2005 levels by 2035.

Power BI Figure. Australia’s emisssions projections baseline and ‘with additional measures’ scenario

Source: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water

These are the first emissions projections developed under the current Government. They take account of some elements of the Powering Australia plan where there has been a sufficient level of design and consultation. As more policies are included in future editions of the projections, it is expected that the outlook against the 2030 target will improve.

Australia’s emissions trends

From 2020 to 2030 most of the decline in emissions in the baseline scenario is projected to come from the electricity sector due to strong uptake of renewables supported by federal, state and territory policies. Emissions from all sectors are projected to decline from 2030 to 2035 with the largest contributions from the electricity, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), stationary energy and transport sectors.

Power BI Figure. Australia’s 2022 emissions projections in the baseline scenario

Source: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water

Power BI Figure. Sector shares in Australia’s baseline scenario

Source: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water

Methodology

The methodology document explains how we made these projections. It describes key data inputs, assumptions, formulas and methods.

Australian National Greenhouse Accounts

See the National Greenhouse Accounts data in this interactive online database. You can query the emissions projections data through a search function and create customised data tables and charts.

Read more

• Read more about emissions projections and access previous reports
• See how we track and report greenhouse gas emissions
• Read about our international climate change commitments

Contact us

Email emissions.projections@industry.gov.au

Please contact us if you experience any difficulty accessing these documents.

¹Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution, Communication 2022